CTSO – Initiation Report

Der nachfolgende „Initiation Report“ wurde gestern veröffentlicht, ist lesenswert und quasi deckungsgleich mit meiner Meinung zum Unternehmen:


„Our Take. We find the established data behind Cytosorb’s efficacy in sepsis and a range of related indications as compelling. Our positive outlook is based on the thousands of patient-based experiences that suggest Cytosorb is a powerful new tool in dealing with the sometimes deadly effects, or after-affects, of the inflammatory response. The sepsis and its related indications is in great need of a disruptive technology to fill the treatment gap between weak anti-inflammatories and overly strong immunosuppressants. We see Cytosorb as ideally positioned to fill that gap. The “big” catalysts ahead, beyond seeing a quarterly sales revenue progression, is entry into the U.S. marketplace. We see the two trials, REFRESH 2-AKI and REMOVE endocarditis, as smartly designed with a high probability of success. A positive outcome, in our opinion, opens the U.S. door for a wide range of applications. Over-time we expect to see additional trials in other new indications, possibly CAR-T in the future. We also see the company’s other product, HemoDefend, as potentially getting to the U.S. marketplace ahead of Cytosorb. Cytosorbents is currently partnered with two of the biggest players in the marketplace today (Fresenius – FMS: not rated and Terumo – TRUMF: not rated). We see a good chance that Cytorsobents’ disruptive technology drives one of the major players to acquire the company. …

Valuation. We use a series of therapeutic models across the various indications and geographies and project product revenues for the company out to the year 2030. In our U.S. therapeutic models, we apply a 30% risk cut (70% success probability) that both U.S. approvals and our market share forecasts can be realized. For us, valuation becomes an interesting question when we discuss the
appropriate „r“ risk-rate to use in our three model metrics, free cash flow to the firm (FCFF), Discounted EPS and Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOP) models, which are equal weighted, averaged and rounded to the nearest whole number. Typically for early-stage companies with no revenues, we use 30%, and for companies with established products and revenues, we use a lower 15%. Cytosorbents arguably is somewhere in the middle, as products are approved and selling in Europe but not yet in the U.S. If we select a conservative 30%, we drive a $9.00 price target. If we select a more aggressive 15%, we arrive at a $28.00 target. If we select a midpoint
(22.5%), we derive a $15.00 target. Given their unique position of approval in Europe, established proof of concept and a product that works, we select the mid-point of 22.5% and set our target for CytoSorbents at $15.00.“

2 Kommentare zu „CTSO – Initiation Report“

  1. Hi, Erstrechtnix.

    Danke für den Link. Wusste nix davon. Halte den Bericht an sich aber trotzdem für brauchbar.

    Viele Grüße


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