- Full year 2018 total revenue of at least $22.3 million, with additional 2018 grant revenue expected upon finalization of invoicing
- Full-year product sales in 2018 of approximately $20.2 million, an increase of approximately 51% compared to $13.4 million in 2017, and record Q4 2018 product sales of approximately $5.4 million
- 2018 blended gross product margins in excess of 72%, mixing higher margin direct sales and lower margin distributor and partner sales
- More than 56,000 CytoSorb cumulative treatments delivered, up from 35,000 treatments a year ago
- End-of-year cash position of approximately $22.3 million (12/31/18)
2017 vs 2018 YOY per Quarter:
Q1: + 70,8 %
Q2: + 70,6 %
Q3: + 47,9 %
Q4: + 25,7 %
Für mich ist das Q4 2018 im Vergleich zu Q4 2017 enttäuschend. Hatte mir hier YOY eher 50 % versprochen. Hoffe, man bekommt hier in Q1 eine Trendumkehr hin.
Von der Umsatzentwicklung abgesehen haben wir aus meiner Sicht die beiden (bekannten) Katalysatoren in der näheren Zukunft:
1. „The 250-patient randomized, controlled, German government-funded REMOVE endocarditis trial also continues to march forward, with now 87 patients enrolled at 10 active sites. An interim analysis on inflammatory mediators on the first 50 patients is scheduled for this month“
2. „Meanwhile, our internal research and development programs, in large part funded by non-dilutive government grants and contracts, have continued to innovate, enabling the rapid development of new technologies, such as HemoDefend™. Supported by approximately $5 million in funding from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) – a division of National Institutes of Health (NIH), as well as U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), we are preparing to begin a pivotal trial intended to support U.S. FDA approval of our HemoDefend-RBC™ packed red blood cell (pRBC) filter in the U.S. HemoDefend-RBC is a point-of-transfusion blood filter designed to reduce non-infectious contaminants in pRBCs that can cause potentially life-threatening transfusion reactions. If approved in the U.S. and elsewhere, the product could be applicable to the more than 100 million pRBC units transfused each year worldwide. However, our initial target markets will be focused on patients who are at highest risk of transfusion reactions, including patients who receive large amounts of blood as in trauma, gastrointestinal bleeds, cardiac and other high risk surgery, cancer, blood disorders, and others. Many of these markets overlap those targeted by CytoSorb, giving us an opportunity to either license the technology or leverage it across our established distribution“
Optimistische Kollegen gehen davon aus, dass die HemoDefend-Studie vergleichsweise schnelle Ergebnisse bringt.
Ansonsten noch ein hoffnungsvoller Rauswerfer: „Having demonstrated the growth and profit potential of our business model, with a solid base of revenue, and strong product gross margins, we are now well-positioned to generate significant gross profit that can be utilized to fund some combination of growth, clinical studies, and profitability. For example, on a base of $20 million in product sales and 72% blended product gross margins, our gross profit was approximately $14 million in 2018. But at $30 million in sales and 80% blended gross margins, gross profit would be $24 million. And at $50 million in sales, and 82% blended gross margins, gross profit would be $41 million. If we can drive faster growth, these economics have the potential to generate significant excess cash to not only fund all of our operating needs, but also to drive true GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) profitability over the next couple of years, where potentially 50 cents or more on every dollar in sales will drop to EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation, and Amortization). This would solidly place our company among an elite group of profitable companies generating significant cash flow.
To this point, in late 2018, we began to implement an aggressive growth strategy to drive accelerated long-term growth in 2019 and beyond. We are making additional investments in clinical studies, adding resources to better support our customers and partners, strengthening our distribution network, and making internal organizational changes that will better align the company for future rapid growth. Though this may result in some near-term fluctuations of our financial performance, we firmly believe these changes will result in solid 2019 year-over-year performance and a continued multi-year growth trajectory.“
Bewertung: ich hätte mir und uns bessere Q4 Sales gewünscht. Aktuell muss man sagen, dass der Year-Over-Year Quartalsumsatz schwächer als erhofft steigt. Der Trend von 70 %-> 48 % > 26 % sollte bei nächster Gelegenheit (Q1) bitte umgekehrt werden.
Auf der anderen Seite gibt es kluge Leute, die mir entgegenhalten würden, dass diese Sichtweise zu kurz greift, dass die wahren Katalysatoren ganz andere sind.
Ich muss mal drüber nachdenken und bin heute Abend gegen 19.30 Uhr auf jeden Fall im Webcast dabei.